Mirian Gom 
ABUJA, Nigeria – A claim by labour leader Issa Aremu that Nigeria’s official unemployment rate has fallen to about five per cent is consistent with previously published statistics. However, available data do not confirm that the rate currently stands at that level in October 2026.
Director-General of the Michael Imoudu National Institute for Labour Studies (MINILS), Aremu, made the claim during an interview on Arise Television’s The Morning Show. He attributed the reported decline to growing economic activities in the public and private sectors. “Today unemployment is about 5% officially. And that’s quite remarkable,” Aremu said.
Several Nigerian media organisations, including Vanguard, reported his remarks on October 7, 2026, under the headline “Unemployment has dropped to 5% under Tinubu — Aremu.” However, a review of available National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figures shows that Nigeria’s unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 to 4.3 per cent in the second quarter.
These figures support the claim that Nigeria’s official unemployment rate was around five per cent in 2024. However, without newer official data, they do not establish the current rate in October 2026.
What Do the Official Unemployment Figures Show?
The NBS reported an unemployment rate of 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, up from 5.0 per cent in the third quarter of 2023.
In the second quarter of 2024, the rate declined to 4.3 per cent, representing a one-percentage-point drop from the previous quarter. These figures show that Nigeria’s official unemployment rate fell below five per cent during that period. However, they are historical statistics, not confirmation of the current rate.
The evidence reviewed for this fact-check did not establish a newer comprehensive NBS labour force survey confirming Nigeria’s unemployment rate as of October 2026. A rate of approximately 4.9 per cent has also been cited for the end of 2024. However, without a clearly identified NBS publication supporting that figure, it cannot be independently verified as an official statistic.
Unemployment rates relate to specific reporting periods. Therefore, figures recorded in 2024 cannot automatically be treated as the current rate two years later.
Why Nigeria’s Unemployment Rate Needs Context
Nigeria’s unemployment statistics have generated debate partly because the NBS revised its labour force survey methodology in 2023. Under the revised methodology, a person is classified as unemployed if they are not employed, have actively searched for work in the preceding four weeks and are available to start work.
The NBS considers a person employed if they work for pay or profit for at least one hour during the reference week or are temporarily absent from such work. This means someone working only a few hours a week may be classified as employed, even if their earnings are insufficient to meet their basic needs.
Although the definition follows international labour-statistics standards, the headline unemployment rate does not capture every form of labour market hardship. For example, the rate alone does not show how many Nigerians earn enough to support themselves, want additional working hours or have access to secure, adequately paid jobs.
The NBS reported that time-related underemployment stood at 10.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2024. The combined rate of unemployment and time-related underemployment was 15.3 per cent. This broader measure provides additional insight into labour underutilisation beyond the headline unemployment rate.
The NBS also reported that 93 per cent of employment was informal in the second quarter of 2024. This highlights the importance of examining job quality and security alongside unemployment figures. Consequently, a low unemployment rate does not, by itself, prove that most Nigerians have stable jobs or adequate earnings.
Has Nigeria’s Unemployment Rate Fallen from Double Digits?
Aremu also argued that unemployment had declined from the double-digit rates recorded in previous years.
However, this comparison requires caution. The NBS changed its labour force survey methodology in 2023, including its definitions of employment and unemployment. Under the revised approach, people who work for at least one hour for pay or profit during the reference week are classified as employed. Because the revised methodology differs from the previous approach, figures from the two statistical series cannot be compared directly without accounting for those changes.
Comparing an earlier double-digit unemployment rate with a more recent rate below five per cent does not, on its own, establish the scale of improvement in employment opportunities. A reliable assessment requires examining the definitions, reporting periods and other labour market indicators behind the figures.
This does not mean the reported decline is necessarily false. Rather, the methodological changes must be considered before conclusions can be drawn about the extent of improvement.
Does a 5% Unemployment Rate Prove More Jobs Are Being Created?
Aremu attributed the reported decline to growing economic activity. He cited developments in the downstream petroleum sector, modular refineries and prospects for manufacturing. He also identified local sourcing of raw materials and the Federal Government’s Nigerian First policy as potential drivers of employment.
However, the unemployment rate alone cannot establish how many jobs these developments have created. Verifying the broader claim would require additional evidence, including employment growth across economic sectors, changes in the number of employed people, earnings, working hours and formal employment.
Documented job-creation figures from relevant industries and government agencies would also help establish whether the developments cited by Aremu have produced measurable employment gains.
Without such evidence, his explanation of the reported decline remains an attributed assessment rather than an independently established conclusion.
What About the N758 Billion Pension Settlement?
Aremu also commended the Federal Government for reportedly clearing N758 billion in inherited pension liabilities through an intervention bond.
Reports published by Punch and The Guardian on October 7, 2026, attributed the announcement to National Pension Commission Director-General Omolola Oloworaran.
According to the reports, the intervention cleared inherited pension liabilities dating back to 2007 and benefited 957,045 people.
However, the pension settlement is separate from the unemployment claim. Evidence that the government cleared pension liabilities does not establish that Nigeria’s unemployment rate has fallen to five per cent. The two claims must therefore be assessed independently.
Verdict: Nigeria’s Current 5% Unemployment Rate Remains Unverified
Aremu’s claim that Nigeria’s official unemployment rate is about five per cent is broadly consistent with previously published official statistics.
The NBS recorded an unemployment rate of 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 and 4.3 per cent in the second quarter. However, the available evidence reviewed for this report does not establish that five per cent is Nigeria’s current unemployment rate as of October 2026. The figure of 4.9 per cent cited for the end of 2024.
Verdict: UNVERIFIED AS A CURRENT FIGURE. The claim is broadly consistent with historical official unemployment rates, but newer official data are needed to confirm Nigeria’s current rate. A fuller assessment of Nigeria’s employment situation should also consider underemployment, informal work, earnings and job security rather than relying on the headline unemployment rate alone.
About the Author
Oluwatobi Adu 