ABUJA, Nigeria – Global commodity prices are projected to rise by 23 per cent in 2026 as conflict in the Middle East, disrupted grain shipments and climate risks drive up energy and food costs, the World Bank Group has warned.
In its Commodity Markets Outlook, released on Wednesday, the bank forecast a 32 per cent increase in energy prices this year. The rise would reverse three consecutive years of declining prices.
Brent crude oil is expected to average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025. The price is projected to ease to $79 per barrel in 2027.
Food commodity prices are also expected to rise by about 10 per cent in 2026 and a further seven per cent in 2027. This would represent a cumulative increase of 18 per cent over the two years.
The World Bank warned that further escalation of the Middle East conflict, continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure and attacks on Black Sea grain shipments could push commodity prices above its baseline forecasts. “Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group.
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