After the Sirens Fall Silent: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford to Blink on Mpox
Korede Abdullah 
LAGOS, Nigeria – When Africa’s public health leaders quietly lowered the emergency siren on mpox, it was meant to signal progress, not relief. Yet across Nigeria, where the virus has never truly left, the decision has reopened a troubling question: does the end of an emergency mark victory, or merely the most dangerous phase of complacency? In this report, Korede Abdullah examines what Africa’s decision to lift mpox’s status as a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (PHECS) really means for Nigeria. Drawing on expert interviews, official data and frontline warnings, the report argues that for Africa’s most populous nation, the post-emergency phase may prove more perilous than the crisis itself.
Africa Lifts the Emergency — But Not the Threat
On January 22, 2026, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) announced that mpox would no longer be treated as a continental emergency. The decision followed advice from the Africa CDC Emergency Consultative Group and was framed as evidence of stronger leadership, improved coordination and growing continental capacity.
Africa CDC officials were careful with their words. Lifting the emergency, they stressed, did not mean mpox had been defeated. Instead, it marked a shift from crisis management to long-term disease control.
For public health experts, the distinction is critical. Emergencies mobilise money, political will and public attention. Transition phases, by contrast, test whether countries can sustain hard-won gains without the pressure of crisis headlines.
The Outbreak That Forced Africa’s Hand
The emergency designation in August 2024 was not symbolic. Mpox cases were rising at an alarming pace, overwhelming fragile health systems across the continent.
By the end of 2024, Africa had recorded 80,276 suspected cases and 1,340 deaths, a sharp increase from the previous year. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) bore the brunt, accounting for 96 per cent of cases and 97 per cent of deaths.
Africa CDC Director-General Dr Jean Kaseya described the outbreak as a reckoning with decades of neglect.
“Decades of limited attention and underinvestment left African countries with poor access to vaccines, diagnostics and treatment,” he said.
The numbers were grim, but they triggered something rare: political urgency.
Leadership, Money and a Turnaround
The response gained momentum after an emergency high-level meeting in Kinshasa in April 2024, convened as cases surged. Political leaders, regional institutions and international partners rallied behind a coordinated plan.
According to Dr Kaseya, African Union member states and partners raised over $1 billion, expanded laboratory networks and distributed more than five million vaccine doses across 16 countries.
“Working under one team, one plan, one budget and one monitoring system, we saw suspected cases drop by 40 per cent and confirmed cases fall by 60 per cent,” he said.
For a continent long criticised for reactive health systems, the progress was significant — and hard-earned.
A Transition Phase, Not a Finish Line
Yet even as he announced the end of the emergency, Dr Kaseya sounded a warning. Mpox, he said, remains endemic in several African countries, including Nigeria.
Africa CDC, in partnership with the World Health Organisation (WHO), is now rolling out a Mpox Transition Roadmap focused on surveillance, laboratory systems, research and public communication.
“This is a major milestone for Africa,” Kaseya said. “But we must move from emergency response to elimination, from dependency to sovereignty, and from vulnerability to resilience.”
For Nigeria, those words carry particular weight.
Nigeria: Progress Without Illusions
In Abuja, health authorities welcomed the continental progress — but rejected any suggestion that Nigeria could afford to relax.
Dr Jide Idris, Director-General of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC), was unequivocal.
“Mpox remains a public health concern in Nigeria, and this transition phase requires sustained vigilance, strong surveillance and community engagement,” he said.
The lifting of the emergency, he added, should lead to smarter, country-led strategies — not fading attention.
“Mpox Is Still with Us”
That warning was sharpened in an exclusive interview with Africa Health Report by Dr Bakare Lawal, a senior official at the Sector-Wide Coordinating Office–Programme Management Unit (SCO-PMU) under Nigeria’s Ministry of Health and Social Welfare.
According to Dr Lawal, the emergency designation was never a measure of mpox’s presence — only of the level of coordination around it.
“Mpox continues to circulate at low but persistent levels in Nigeria,” he said. “The emergency lift reflects improved coordination, not the disappearance of the disease.”
Nigeria’s risk profile, he explained, remains complex. Dense urban centres, high mobility and close human–animal contact all create conditions for continued transmission.
“The virus is endemic here, and the risk of transmission remains real, especially if vigilance drops,” he warned.
Holding on to Hard-Won Gains
One of the greatest dangers of the post-emergency phase, Dr Lawal said, is institutional amnesia. During the crisis, Nigeria expanded laboratory testing, trained health workers and improved access to vaccines. The challenge now is to make those improvements permanent.
“Mpox must be fully integrated into existing disease surveillance systems, not treated as a temporary outbreak issue,” he said.
Funding, he warned, is the fault line. Emergency periods attract donor money. Transitions demand domestic commitment.
“As emergency funding reduces, the government must provide steady local financing to keep systems running effectively,” he said.
Surveillance Gaps and the Race Against Time
Despite progress, Dr Lawal identified serious weaknesses — especially at community level. Too many cases, he said, are still detected late or not at all.
“We need faster reporting, wider diagnostic coverage in state laboratories, and better-trained frontline health workers who can recognise early symptoms,” he said.
Digital reporting tools, real-time data sharing and stronger coordination between state and federal authorities could mean the difference between containment and resurgence.
Vaccines and the Danger of Silent Spread
On vaccination, Dr Lawal cautioned against blanket campaigns. Instead, he advocated a targeted, risk-based strategy.
“Priority should be given to healthcare workers, laboratory staff, close contacts of confirmed cases, and people in outbreak hotspots,” he said.
His concerns are reinforced by new research conducted by Nigerian scientists in collaboration with the University of Cambridge. The study found evidence that some Nigerians have been exposed to mpox without developing symptoms.
“The virus may circulate quietly, leaving immune signs that routine surveillance will miss,” said lead researcher Dr Adam Abdullahi.
Silent transmission, experts warn, is how outbreaks regain momentum.
Lagos: Calm, But Not Complacent
Lagos remains Nigeria’s mpox epicentre, with 246 cases recorded over the past seven years. Although no active cases have been reported since August 2024, the state insists it is not letting down its guard.
Prof. Akin Abayomi, Lagos State Commissioner for Health, said surveillance and infection control measures remain firmly in place.
“Our surveillance and infection control measures remain strong,” he said.
Dr Lawal believes public behaviour will be decisive.
“Mpox spreads more when people delay seeking care because of fear or lack of information,” he said.
Early presentation, isolation, contact tracing and sustained public education, he added, are Nigeria’s strongest defences against another surge.
After the Emergency, the Real Test Begins
The end of Africa’s mpox emergency is, by any measure, a public health achievement. But for Nigeria, it is also a moment of risk. History shows that diseases often rebound not during crises, but after them — when attention drifts and systems weaken.
Mpox, experts insist, is no longer a continental emergency. But in Nigeria, it remains a persistent threat — one that demands memory, money and political will long after the sirens fall silent.
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Mirian Gom 
Oluwafunbi Bello