Koko Maxwella 
ABUJA, Nigeria – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its 2025 global growth projection to 3.2%, citing milder tariff shocks and favourable financial conditions.
However, it warns that a renewed U.S.–China trade war could derail the fragile recovery.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the Fund attributes the upgrade to eased trade tensions and resilient global supply chains. “Recent trade deals avoided the worst of Trump’s tariffs,” the IMF stated, marking its second growth revision since April.
The IMF projects global GDP growth of 3.1% for 2026, unchanged from July, and headline inflation at 4.2% for 2025. But it cautions that divergence persists inflation is rising in the U.S. as firms pass on tariff costs, while slowing in Asian exporters like China, India, and Thailand.
“An escalation of tariff tensions could significantly cut growth forecasts and dampen investment,” Gourinchas told Reuters ahead of the IMF–World Bank meetings.
About the Author
Korede Abdullah 
Chukwu Obinna 
Oluwatobi Adu 
Otamere Gladness