ABUJA, Nigeria – As El Niño raises fresh concerns about extreme weather across West Africa, Nigerians are facing scorching temperatures, sleepless nights, rising household costs and growing health risks, with those lacking reliable electricity and access to cooling among the most exposed. In this report, Hope Ajayi examines what NiMet’s latest weather forecast means for ordinary Nigerians, how the changing climate could affect livelihoods and public health, and whether authorities are prepared to protect the most vulnerable.
For Alabi Olamide, a 27-year-old telecommunications engineer in Lagos, the most difficult part of the heat is not the scorching afternoon sun but trying to sleep at night when temperatures remain uncomfortable. His household relies on solar-powered fans during power outages, but even these provide limited relief. Long journeys under the sun have also become increasingly uncomfortable.
Despite experiencing the effects of the heat, Olamide said he does not know how to recognise the warning signs of heat exhaustion or heatstroke or where to seek help. His experience reflects growing public health concerns as Nigeria moves further into the dry season, with meteorological authorities forecasting rising temperatures and increased heat discomfort across several parts of the country.
In its November 2026 Weather Outlook, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) projected maximum temperatures of between 28.6°C and 37.7°C nationwide. It warned that high temperatures combined with lingering humidity could increase thermal discomfort, particularly in Central and Southern Nigeria.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also warned that the developing El Niño could intensify climate risks into 2027, raising concerns about extreme heat, disrupted rainfall and pressure on livelihoods.
For ordinary Nigerians, prolonged heat could affect sleep, productivity, health, food storage and household spending, particularly where electricity is unreliable and access to cooling facilities is limited.
How Rising Heat Is Affecting Nigerian Households
Across Lagos, Ogun and Enugu, residents describe increasingly uncomfortable weather affecting their sleep, mobility and daily activities. Olamide said the heat had become particularly difficult at night, adding that he had not received official heat-related warnings and mainly encountered information shared through WhatsApp.
Becky, a teacher in Lagos, described the weather as unusually intense. “I honestly cannot remember it being this hot, even with rain falling,” she said.
She reported excessive sweating and difficulty sleeping, explaining that unreliable electricity makes it difficult to depend on fans and air conditioners.
In Ogun State, entrepreneur Bisi Ojo said the heat remained overwhelming even with access to cooling facilities. “Everywhere is so hot, even with ventilation such as fans, natural air and AC. The air is so hot. The sun is scorching. You could barely do something,” she said.
Ojo reported migraines, excessive sweating and skin rashes, adding that the weather had reduced her mobility and increased household expenses. Poor electricity supply often forces residents to spend more on fuel to operate generators and cooling appliances. She also expressed concern about food spoilage when refrigerators cannot operate consistently.
Meanwhile, Miss Ayodele Thomas, who recently returned from the United Kingdom, said adjusting to Nigeria’s weather had been challenging, particularly because the heat affected her sleep.
In Enugu, Keji Awolope also reported difficulty sleeping, although access to electricity and air conditioning had helped her cope. These experiences show how income, housing conditions, electricity supply and access to cooling facilities influence people’s ability to manage excessive heat.
El Niño and Its Implications for West Africa
The concerns about rising temperatures come as the world enters another period of heightened climate uncertainty.
The WMO’s November 9, 2026, State of the Climate Update confirmed that El Niño had intensified since August and was expected to peak around December. The organisation warned that the event could increase the risks of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall into 2027.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It influences atmospheric circulation and can alter temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide.
However, its effects are not uniform. While some regions may experience prolonged dry conditions, others could face unusually heavy rainfall or flooding. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in its assessment of the developing El Niño and its implications for West and Central Africa, highlighted uncertainty among seasonal forecast models.
While some projections indicated below-normal rainfall across parts of the Sahel, others suggested different rainfall patterns across the central-eastern Sahel and Gulf of Guinea. For Nigeria and other West African countries, changing rainfall and temperature patterns could affect agriculture, water availability, livelihoods, public health and food security.
The WMO’s warning is therefore not a prediction that El Niño will automatically trigger an extreme heat emergency across West Africa. Rather, it highlights how a warming climate and a strong climate event could compound existing weather risks.
What NiMet’s Forecast Means for Nigerians
NiMet’s November outlook projected daytime maximum temperatures of between 28.6°C and 37.7°C, with night-time minimum temperatures ranging from 14.6°C to 25.8°C.
Monthly rainfall totals are forecast to range from 2.2mm to 217.7mm, with coastal areas expected to receive relatively higher rainfall despite the general decline in precipitation. The agency warned that high temperatures combined with lingering humidity could increase thermal discomfort, particularly across North-Central and Southern Nigeria.
It advised residents to stay hydrated, avoid prolonged exposure to direct sunlight, maintain good ventilation and practise proper environmental sanitation. The forecast has implications for outdoor workers, including farmers, construction workers, traffic officers, market traders and transport operators, who may have limited opportunities to escape the heat.
Households also face increased cooling expenses, while unreliable electricity could worsen food spoilage when refrigerators cannot operate consistently. Farmers may experience additional pressure as changing rainfall patterns and higher temperatures affect harvesting, storage and dry-season cultivation. NiMet advised farmers to take advantage of prevailing dry conditions for harvesting and storage while making adequate irrigation arrangements.
Heat-Related Illnesses: The Health Risks
Beyond discomfort, prolonged exposure to high temperatures can cause serious health complications. Ajie Victoria Osaruwe, a 23-year-old Public Health graduate serving with the Federal Ministry of Health under the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) in Abuja, identified dehydration, heat cramps, heat exhaustion and heatstroke among the major health risks associated with extreme heat.
She explained that dehydration occurs when the body loses more water and essential salts through sweating than it replaces. Early signs include excessive thirst, dry mouth, dark-coloured urine, reduced urination and dizziness.
Heat exhaustion may cause heavy sweating, weakness, nausea, headaches, muscle cramps and a rapid heartbeat. Heatstroke, however, is a medical emergency. Its warning signs include confusion, unusual behaviour, fainting, seizures and loss of consciousness. Anyone suspected of experiencing heatstroke requires urgent medical attention and prompt cooling.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that extreme heat places additional strain on the cardiovascular system and kidneys and can worsen existing heart, respiratory and other chronic conditions. Infants, older adults, people with chronic illnesses and outdoor workers are particularly vulnerable.
Osaruwe recommended drinking water regularly, wearing lightweight clothing, taking breaks in shaded or cool places and avoiding strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest periods. She also urged employers to provide drinking water, shade and adequate rest opportunities for outdoor workers.
Why Some Communities Feel the Heat More
Environmental conditions and urban development can determine how intensely communities experience heat. Umar Nana Aisha, an Environmental Officer at Ashawa Consults Ltd, said climate change, deforestation, reduced vegetation, rapid urbanisation, air pollution and increased construction activities contribute to higher urban temperatures.
She explained that removing trees reduces natural shade and cooling, while concrete surfaces, roads and other construction materials absorb and retain heat. “When trees are removed, we lose a natural cooling system. Concrete and asphalt absorb and retain heat, while densely built urban areas restrict airflow, making neighbourhoods hotter,” she said.
She added that metal roofing materials can increase indoor temperatures, particularly in poorly ventilated buildings. These challenges are often worse in low-income communities, where overcrowded homes, unreliable electricity and limited access to cooling facilities make it difficult to escape excessive heat.
Nana Aisha called for better urban planning, tree planting, protected green spaces, improved housing, accessible drinking water and stronger environmental regulations. She stressed that heat should be treated not only as an environmental issue but also as a public health concern.
Is Nigeria’s Healthcare System Prepared?
Despite the availability of weather forecasts, the public health impact of extreme heat depends on whether residents receive timely warnings, understand the risks and can access appropriate treatment.
Osaruwe said Nigeria needs to strengthen its preparedness, particularly in recognising and treating heat-related illnesses. She identified delayed recognition of symptoms as a major concern, noting that headaches, dizziness, weakness and nausea may be mistaken for other conditions.
She called for continuous training for healthcare workers, adequate treatment supplies, cooling facilities and emergency care. She also recommended stronger collaboration between meteorological agencies and public health authorities to translate weather warnings into practical health advisories.
The experiences of Olamide and Becky highlight the importance of effective public communication. Both residents said they had not received official heat-related warnings, while Olamide admitted he did not know the warning signs of heat exhaustion and heatstroke.
Osaruwe recommended sharing public health information through radio, television, text messages, local languages, schools, healthcare workers, community leaders and religious institutions. Nigeria also needs stronger coordination between NiMet, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC), the Federal Ministry of Health, state health authorities and emergency management agencies.
An effective heat-health warning system should identify vulnerable communities, explain the health consequences and provide clear guidance for residents, employers, schools and healthcare facilities.
How Nigerians Can Protect Themselves
Residents can reduce exposure to excessive heat by drinking water regularly, wearing lightweight clothing, seeking shade and taking breaks in cooler places.
They should also reduce strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest periods, improve home ventilation where possible and regularly check on children, older adults and people with chronic illnesses.
Persistent dizziness, weakness, vomiting or severe headaches require medical attention, while confusion, seizures, fainting or loss of consciousness may indicate heatstroke and require emergency care. Employers must also provide drinking water, shaded rest areas and reasonable breaks for workers exposed to high temperatures.
Beyond the Forecast: Nigeria’s Heat Preparedness Test
The experiences of residents across Lagos, Ogun and Enugu show that the ability to cope with rising temperatures is unequal. Those with reliable electricity and access to cooling facilities may manage better, while households in poorly ventilated homes or struggling with the cost of alternative power have fewer options.
The wider climate outlook adds urgency. Although El Niño is expected to influence global weather patterns into 2027, its effects across West Africa will vary and require continued monitoring. NiMet’s November outlook has already identified the risk of increased thermal discomfort across parts of Nigeria. The challenge is ensuring that residents receive information they can understand and act upon.
This requires coordination among meteorological agencies, public health authorities, environmental professionals, urban planners and communities, alongside investment in early-warning systems, healthcare readiness, improved housing, accessible water and urban green spaces.
As temperatures rise and climate uncertainty deepens, Nigeria’s response should not be measured only by the accuracy of its weather forecasts, but by how effectively those forecasts protect people.
For ordinary Nigerians, preparedness means being able to sleep safely, work without undue exposure, protect their families and access help when the heat becomes dangerous. Without a coordinated response, extreme heat could place increasing pressure on household wellbeing, productivity and the country’s public health system.
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