Korede Abdullah 
LAGOS, Nigeria – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Nigeria will become Africa’s third largest economy by 2026, citing stronger output, reform momentum and improving foreign exchange conditions.
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025), Nigeria ranks fourth in Africa in 2025 with an estimated $285 billion GDP, behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.
The Fund attributes Nigeria’s recent ranking volatility to currency devaluations, GDP rebasing and broader macroeconomic pressures across the continent.
However, the IMF forecasts Nigeria’s GDP will rise to $334 billion in 2026, overtaking Algeria, projected at $284 billion. South Africa and Egypt are expected to retain first and second positions.
The IMF links the projected rebound to higher oil production, improved foreign exchange liquidity and ongoing structural reforms.
“Policy adjustments are expected to support medium-term growth despite short-term inflation pressures,” the Fund states.
Key reforms include petrol subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalisation and fiscal restructuring. On January 19, the IMF revised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast upward to 4.4 percent.
The World Bank echoes this optimism, raising its 2026 growth projection for Nigeria from 3.7 percent to 4.4 percent on January 13. IMF Projects Nigeria To Overtake Rivals As Economy Strengthens
Economists say sustained reform implementation will determine whether Nigeria consolidates its projected rise or faces renewed headwinds.
About the Author
Oluwatobi Adu 
Chukwu Obinna 
Oluwafunbi Bello