Korede Abdullah 
LAGOS, Nigeria – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is raising Nigeria’s economic growth forecast to 4.4 per cent in 2026, citing improving macroeconomic conditions and sustained reform momentum.
The upgrade appears in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces.” The Fund projects Nigeria’s growth to rise from 4.1 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025, before accelerating to 4.4 per cent in 2026—an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from its October 2025 estimate.
According to the IMF, Nigeria’s stronger outlook reflects a broader recovery across sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is projected at 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027.
“Macroeconomic stabilisation and continued reform efforts are supporting growth across the region,” the Fund says.
At the global level, the IMF forecasts economic growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026, noting that resilience in the world economy is underpinned by rising investment in technology and artificial intelligence, even as trade policies evolve.
For Nigeria, the IMF highlights energy prices as a key variable, projecting that energy commodity prices will decline by about seven per cent in 2026. However, oil prices remain supported by what the Fund describes as a “soft price floor” linked to OPEC+ production management and crude stockpiling by China.
Despite the improved outlook, the IMF warns that risks remain “tilted to the downside,” citing geopolitical tensions, renewed trade protectionism, and high public debt levels.
To sustain growth, the Fund urges Nigeria to rebuild fiscal buffers, advance structural reforms and safeguard central bank independence.
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Juliet Jacob 
