At the Forest’s Edge: How Banditry Creeping from Nigeria’s Heartland Is Testing the South-West’s Resolve
Korede Abdullah 
LAGOS, Nigeria – As dusk settles over the thick forests and winding farmlands that separate Nigeria’s South-West from Kwara and Kogi states, a new kind of fear has begun to travel faster than word of mouth. It slips through border communities in Ekiti, Ondo and Ogun, carrying in rumours of unfamiliar footsteps, abandoned farms and sleepless nights. The South-West is not yet a war zone—but it is no longer untouched. This uneasy moment is the focus of a growing security debate now gripping the region. Once insulated from the worst waves of armed banditry and mass abductions that have devastated the North-West and North-Central, the South-West is confronting a sobering reality: criminal groups on the move do not recognise state boundaries. And the forests that stretch across Kwara, Kogi and the South-West’s hinterlands are becoming both their cover and corridor. Korede Abdullah, writes.
At the South-West Zonal Security Summit held in Lagos on November 21, concern turned into alarm. Senator Mukhail Adetokunbo Abiru did not mince words. “We must not allow the South-West to become a sanctuary for criminality,” he warned, pointing directly to the Lakurawa axis and parts of Kogi as emerging pressure points.
A region on edge, not yet at war
Compared with Zamfara or Kaduna, the South-West has been spared the relentless cycle of mass kidnappings and village raids. But security experts caution that this relative calm may be misleading.
A security analyst, Rufai Karee, who spoke with Africa Health Report (AHR) on background, described the current phase as a familiar pattern.
“Once they secure forest corridors, the next step is the highways and farmlands. What Kwara and Kogi are experiencing is the prelude,” he said. “If the warning signs are ignored, the escalation is usually swift.”
His message to the governors was blunt: urgency, not reassurance, should guide policy.
Governors back federal action—but prepare for more
Meeting in Ibadan days after the Lagos summit, the South-West Governors’ Forum publicly aligned itself with federal security efforts in the North-West and North-Central. In a communiqué, the governors praised President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s approach.
“The forum commends Mr. President, His Excellency, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, on the fight against insecurity and various economic reforms and other developmental agenda,” it read.
They also welcomed recent rescue operations beyond the region.
“The forum applauds the swift response of the Federal Government towards the rescue of the Kwara abductees and more than 51 students at the Catholic School, Niger State.”
Yet beneath the diplomatic language was a clear acknowledgement: the South-West must strengthen its own defences.
Security fund, forest guards and digital eyes
Central to the governors’ new strategy is the creation of a South-West Security Fund under the Development Agenda for Western Nigeria (DAWN) Commission, as well as a digital intelligence-sharing platform linking all six states.
The communiqué stressed that forests “can no longer remain free havens” and renewed calls for the deployment of forest guards. It also flagged interstate migration as a security risk if left unmonitored, urging closer collaboration with the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC).
For border communities, these plans cannot come soon enough.
Ekiti’s border communities feel exposed
In towns like Irele and Omuo-Ekiti, which sit close to the Kwara and Kogi boundaries, anxiety has become part of daily life. An elderly farmer, Pa Samuel Adesola, told AHR that night-time movement has sharply declined.
“We hear what is happening just across the border,” he said. “If they break into Kwara towns this easily, what stops them from crossing to us?”
A trader in the same community echoed the sentiment. “Our fear is simple: once they enter these forests, they will come here. We don’t have enough security presence.”
The fear is already shaping behaviour. Youth leaders report organised night watches, while farmers shy away from remote plots near the forest line.
“We have instructed our boys not to sleep deeply at night,” a youth leader in Omuo-Ekiti said. “We take turns because we don’t want to be taken by surprise.”
Another farmer was more direct: “People are abandoning farms near the border. Nobody wants to walk into bandits by mistake.”
More patrols, lingering gaps
State authorities insist they are not standing still. Lagos Commissioner of Police Moshood Jimoh said surveillance has been intensified across the zone.
“Lagos is safe and secure. We have deployed additional personnel across schools, worship centres and public places,” he said.
In Ekiti, Amotekun Corps Commander, Brigadier-General Olu Adewa (rtd), confirmed a sharper focus on forest corridors. “We are watching the Kogi–Kwara axis closely,” he told AHR. “The aim is to block infiltration before it becomes a crisis.”
Even so, security professionals privately admit that manpower shortages, difficult terrain and intelligence gaps remain major challenges.
Calls for regional unity grow louder
At the Lagos summit, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, represented by Dr Ayodele Ogunsan, framed the issue as existential.
“Security is not just about peace; it is about economic survival,” he said, advocating deeper integration of Amotekun operations and real-time intelligence sharing.
Senator Jimoh Ibrahim called for unconventional thinking in combating evolving threats, while former Ogun governor and senator, Gbenga Daniel, pressed for stronger federal-state collaboration before infiltration hardened into insurgency.
Traditional rulers warn of grassroots failure
Traditional authorities, often closest to the pulse of local communities, voiced concerns that resonated sharply. The Alara of Ilara, Oba Olufolarin Ogunsanwo, criticised weak community structures and youth disengagement.
“We cannot overlook the power of community policing,” he said. “If the grassroots are weak, bandits will exploit the cracks.”
The Aare Ona Kakanfo of Yorubaland, Gani Adams, took the argument further, reiterating his long-held position that state police are the most sustainable solution to lingering insecurity.
Technology, coordination and one region
Following further deliberations, the governors adopted a new intelligence architecture anchored on joint operations and technology. Dr Charles Akinola of the South-West Development Commission (SWDC) said the agreement reflects a shift in mindset.
“The governors agreed to treat the region as a single economic and security bloc,” he said. “There will be much more coordination this time.”
That framework includes the proposed security fund, a digital intelligence platform and state-supported forest guard deployments.
Forest corridors: the soft underbelly
Security analysts consistently identify ungoverned forest belts, illegal mining camps and informal migration routes as the region’s weakest points. Many of these spaces already host criminal elements operating beyond routine surveillance.
“The forests can no longer remain free havens,” the governors warned.
A retired military officer interviewed by AHR put it starkly:
“If the forests fall, the highways will fall next.”
Federal signals a harder line
At the national level, Interior Minister Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo signalled a tougher posture. Speaking during an inspection of Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps facilities, he said:
“The president has given a marching order for a safe Nigeria.”
He stressed continuous investment in personnel.
“We must keep training, retraining and investing so that these officers can give their best.”
His remarks align with ongoing rescue and enforcement operations in Kwara, Kebbi and Niger states.
The cost of delay
Across Ekiti’s border towns, the verdict from residents is simple: prevention is cheaper than recovery. “If bandits enter from Kwara or Kogi, it will not be because they are powerful,” an elder told AHR. “It will be because we were not prepared.”
For now, the South-West remains largely peaceful. But peace, residents and experts agree, is no longer guaranteed by geography alone. The forests are restless, the borders porous, and the window for decisive action is narrowing. What happens next will test whether preparedness can outrun fear.
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Mirian Gom 
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Edino Chubiyo Cornelius 
Oluwatobi Adu