LAGOS, Nigeria – Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, is often described as a land flowing with agricultural promise. Blessed with over 70 million hectares of arable land and a youthful population eager for work, it should, in theory, be the continent’s breadbasket. Instead, Nigeria spends an eye-watering $10 billion annually on food imports, a figure that continues to climb despite endless government pledges to achieve food self-sufficiency.
This costly paradox raises urgent questions: why does a country with vast farmland, abundant rainfall, and human resources still rely on foreign markets for food? Why are Nigerians going hungry while fertile land lies fallow? In this analysis report, Korede Abdullah, AHR Southwest Correspondent unpacks the policy failures, infrastructure gaps, and cultural attitudes that keep Nigeria food-insecure despite its immense potential.
Nigeria’s Costly Dependence on Food Imports
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigerians spent ₦21.51 trillion on imports between 2020 and 2024, with food and related products consuming ₦6.77 trillion of that bill. Each year, the numbers climb higher:
₦594 billion in 2020
₦903 billion in 2021
₦976 billion in 2022
₦1.51 trillion in 2023
₦2.79 trillion in 2024
The imports range from rice, wheat, and sugar to even basic goods like tomato paste, poultry, and fish—items Nigeria can and once did produce in abundance.
Agriculture experts warn that such dependence not only weakens the economy but also exposes Nigerians to global food shocks, inflation, and scarcity.
Budgetary Commitment: A Drop in the Ocean
The 2025 national budget allocates ₦826.5 billion (1.73%) to agriculture. While this is an improvement from past years, it remains far below the 10% benchmark set by the Maputo and Malabo Declarations to which Nigeria is a signatory.
Development analysts argue that without significant investment, Nigeria cannot expect miracles in food production. Senator Abubakar Kyari, Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, admitted at the FirstBank 2025 Agric and Export Expo that the current import bill is “unsustainable.” He, however, expressed optimism that the newly created National Agricultural Development Fund (NADF) would provide targeted support to farmers.
But experts insist that without matching policies, infrastructure, and financing, budgetary announcements risk remaining empty rhetoric.
Expert Voices: “A Very Unfortunate Situation”
In an exclusive interview with AHR, an agricultural economist at Ekiti State University, Dr. Israel Ojo described Nigeria’s $10 billion annual food import bill as “very unfortunate.”
He argued that the same amount, if channelled into irrigation, mechanisation, and farmer support, could transform agriculture into Nigeria’s economic backbone.
“Insecurity has pushed farmers off their land. Bad rural roads make it difficult to move produce to markets. Electricity is unreliable, and market linkages are weak,” he told Africa Health Report. “The tragedy is that large portions of our fertile land remain idle.”
His frustration is echoed by Kayode Olayanju, another agricultural expert, who stressed that Nigeria’s reliance on imported staples like rice and wheat is self-inflicted. “We must stop treating agriculture as charity for the poor. It is a wealth-creating business,” he said.
Policy Inconsistencies and Abandoned Programmes
Beyond funding, Nigeria’s agriculture suffers from a lack of continuity. Successive governments have rolled out initiatives only to abandon them midstream. From Obasanjo’s Fertiliser Subsidy Scheme to Jonathan’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda, many well-intentioned programmes were scrapped or diluted with the change of administrations.
This inconsistency leaves farmers confused, investors discouraged, and development partners wary. Analysts note that countries that successfully transformed agriculture—such as Brazil and Vietnam—did so by sustaining policies for decades, not years.
Agriculture as a Business, not a Burden
A major cultural barrier remains the perception of farming as “dirty work” for the poor. Dr. Ojo believes this mindset is as damaging as poor policies.
“Farming should be seen as a business venture capable of producing millionaires, not just subsistence farmers,” he argued. “Young Nigerians must be encouraged to see agriculture as a career path, with opportunities across the value chain—from production to processing, logistics, and exports.”
Experts say ICT, mechanisation, and agritech innovation could make farming attractive to Nigeria’s digitally savvy youth. With 35 million hectares of arable land lying idle, the opportunity is enormous.
Import Substitution: A Roadmap to Self-Sufficiency
Both experts agree that food security requires a blend of investment, modernization, and security reforms. “Nigeria must pursue holistic policy reforms by scaling up initiatives like tractor procurement, irrigation expansion, ranching, and crop fortification,” Olayanju added.
“If we can align investment, modernisation, farmer security, and youth engagement, agriculture will become the true engine of Nigeria’s economic revival.”
Experts suggest that farmlands should be put to proper use with modern tools and urge the young people to see farming as a real business and opportunity. Until government actions match its promises, Nigeria will remain hungry despite its rich land. The country must choose to keep depending on foreign markets or use its own soil to secure food and a stronger future.
They called for urgent import substitution policies to reduce dependence on foreign food. These include subsidies and tax incentives for local producers, guaranteed minimum pricing to protect farmers from losses, land reforms to secure access for smallholder and youth farmers and buy-Nigeria campaigns to stimulate demand for local produce
Such strategies, if sustained, could replicate the success stories of countries that grew from import-dependent to export-driven within a generation.
Infrastructure: The Missing Link
Even with policy reform, Nigeria’s agricultural dream will remain a mirage without basic infrastructure. Rural farmers struggle to access markets due to poor roads. Post-harvest losses account for up to 40% of crops because of lack of storage and processing facilities.
Investment in irrigation is critical, especially as climate change intensifies droughts and floods. Experts also point to the need for modern ranching systems to reduce farmer-herder conflicts that displace entire farming communities.
Youth Engagement: Nigeria’s Untapped Advantage
Nigeria’s demographic strength—its youth—remains untapped. With unemployment stubbornly high, experts argue that agribusiness could provide millions of jobs if properly structured.
Olayanju emphasised that youth-focused agribusiness schemes, credit support, and mentorship programmes could transform idle farmland into hubs of innovation and productivity. “The government must restructure Agricultural Development Banks to offer farmer-friendly loans,” he added.
Towards a Holistic Agricultural Revolution
For Nigeria to overcome its food insecurity crisis, piecemeal solutions will not suffice. Experts recommend a holistic revolution that integrates Adequate financing and budgetary commitment,
security for farmers in rural communities, investment in mechanisation, irrigation, and storage facilities, policy consistency across administrations, youth empowerment and land reforms,
stronger value-chain development.
As Olayanju concluded: “If we can align investment, modernisation, farmer security, and youth engagement, agriculture will become the true engine of Nigeria’s economic revival.”
A Choice Between Hunger and Hope
Nigeria stands at a crossroads. It can continue pouring billions into food imports while fertile land wastes away, or it can seize the moment to transform agriculture into a powerhouse of growth, jobs, and food security.
The land is ready. The youth are waiting. The question remains: will the government match its words with action, or will Nigerians keep starving in the shadow of abundance?
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