ABUJA, Nigeria – A newly validated cesarean risk calculator is reshaping maternal healthcare by helping women and doctors make more informed decisions about childbirth.
Researchers in the United States tested the widely used tool on 548 women undergoing labour induction and found it reliably predicts the likelihood of cesarean delivery.
Published in the International Journal of Gynecology and Obstetrics, the study revealed that the calculator demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77.
“This tool aligns predicted probabilities with actual outcomes, giving both patients and clinicians a clearer picture,” said lead researcher Dr. CJ Ibarra.
Among participants, 29% had cesarean deliveries, while 71% delivered vaginally. Women with a calculated risk of 10% or higher were significantly more likely to experience cesarean birth and maternal complications such as postpartum haemorrhage.
However, researchers found no significant difference in newborn outcomes across the groups.
“This calculator enhances shared decision-making and allows patients to give informed consent,” explained Dr. Ibarra, adding that it could be especially valuable in counselling and telemedicine settings.
Experts caution, however, against over-reliance. “Risk calculators support clinical judgment but should never replace it,” said co-author Dr. Lauren Hardaker. “They highlight risk but cannot substitute personalised care.”
The study also underscored concerns about the use of race and ethnicity in predictions, warning it could deepen health disparities.
Researchers called for future models that exclude such factors while maintaining predictive accuracy.
The findings reinforce the tool’s potential in guiding safe, evidence-based maternal care, especially as global rates of labour induction continue to rise.
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