LAGOS, Nigeria- As heavy rains sweep across Lagos and other parts of Nigeria, the familiar dread of flooding grips Africa’s largest city. Each year, the warnings arrive. Agencies issue grim forecasts. Residents brace for impact. Then, when the waters come, the cycle of displacement, destruction, and dashed promises begins again.
This year appears no different. Homes are already submerged, families are trapped, and experts warn that Lagos’s vulnerabilities remain as stark as ever. In this report, Korede Abdullah, Africa Health Report (AHR’s) South-west correspondent, explores both the forecasts and the human realities — submerged homes, displaced families, and governance gaps that leave the city one storm away from crisis.
Forecasts Point to Trouble Ahead
The Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) recently issued a stark warning: 28 states and the Federal Capital Territory should prepare for floods this August. Lagos sits at the top of that high-risk list.
Commissioner for the Environment, Tokunbo Wahab, urged residents in low-lying areas to move. “For those who stay in the lowland of Lagos, they have to move to the upland pending when the rain recedes,” he warned.
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET) and the Ministry of Water Resources have echoed these alerts, citing the combined effects of overflowing rivers, blocked drainage systems, and unregulated urban expansion.
But Lagos residents have heard such warnings before — often without seeing real protection on the ground.
Street Turn to Rivers
On Monday, following a 14-hour downpour, vast swathes of Ikorodu, Ijede LCDA, Igbogbo/Bayeku LCDA, and Alimosho were underwater. Streets became rivers, vehicles stalled midstream, and homes flooded to window level.
Traders counted losses as goods were destroyed overnight. Schools suspended classes. Families waded barefoot through filthy water to salvage what they could.
For many, it marks the start of another rainy season filled with uncertainty — the fear that every cloud could bring displacement or worse.
Why Flood Warnings Rarely Translate into Action
Nigeria’s problem is not forecasting; it is inaction after forecasting.
“We keep predicting and warning, but implementation is where we are weak,” said environmental policy analyst, Dr. Femi Adeyeye. “Floods in Lagos are not just about rainfall — they are about human failure to prepare.”
Agencies routinely publish maps of high-risk zones, but local residents say they receive no evacuation support, no government help to safeguard their homes, and little effort to keep drains clear ahead of rains.
Lessons Still Ignored
The history is sobering.
In 2022, unprecedented flooding swept across Nigeria, killing over 600 people, displacing 1.4 million, and destroying hundreds of thousands of hectares of farmland.
In 2023, flood claimed 603 lives and affected 2.5 million more.
In 2024, over 1,200 people died in what official called Nigeria’s deadliest flooding in decades.
Lagos escaped the very worst in those years, but repeated flash floods show the city remains one prolonged storm away from disaster.
The structural weakness inadequate drainage, uncontrolled construction on floodplains, and chronic waste mismanagement have never been fixed.
Drainage: A Crisis of Human Making
In many parts of Lagos, the greatest flood accelerators are not natural, they are man-made. Residents frequently dump refuse directly into canals, gutters, and choking the very channels meant to divert stormwater into the lagoon. “When drains are blocked, water has no place to go, and it backs into homes,” explained civil engineer and flood mitigation specialist, Mrs. Ifeoma Chukwu.
This problem is compounded by poor maintenance, with many primary drainage channels clogged all year round. Even when government agencies clear some canals before the rains, the absence of waste management enforcement means they are quickly blocked again.
Relocation Without Shelter
Relocation warnings have been a staple of Lagos State’s rainy season, but most residents believe they are often impractical for those most at risk. The Lagos State Emergency Management Agency (LASEMA) regularly advises residents of flood-prone areas to seek safety on higher ground, yet the city lacks sufficient, well-equipped temporary shelters.
AHR findings show that displaced residents often end up in overcrowded church halls, community centres, or the homes of relatives, without access to bedding, sanitation, or adequate food.
“Telling people to move without giving them a safe place to stay is not a plan — it’s a wish,” said Alhaji Dele Lawal while speaking with our correspondent. Alhaji Lawal added, “For low-income families who live paycheck to paycheck, leaving home without a secure alternative means risking both shelter and livelihood.
The “Fire Brigade” Approach
Criticis say Lagos’s flood management remains reactive rather than preventive. Year-round measures such as dredging major canals, enforcing building codes, and removing illegal structures from floodplains are either sporadic or poorly coordinated.
In some neighbourhoods, half-completed drainage projects have been left abandoned for months, effectively becoming new flood traps.
This “fire brigade” model — waiting for disaster to strike before mobilising resources — leaves communities exposed to avoidable losses year after year.
Economic and Infrastructure Risks
Beyond the homes and streets directly flooded, Lagos’s economy and infrastructure are also in the firing line. Major highways and bridges risk being cut off during heavy downpours, making it impossible for food and fuel to reach parts of the city.
Public transport networks, including bus terminals and ferry jetties, could grind to a halt, while emergency services face delays in reaching stranded residents.
The Chairman of Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gabriel Idahosa, had previously warned that such disruptions can ripple through supply chains, raise commodity prices, and undermine investor confidence. ‘In a city that serves as Nigeria’s financial heartbeat, the economic stakes are as high as the humanitarian ones.”, Idahosa said.
Warnings That Do Not Reach the People
Even when accurate warnings are issued, they often fail to reach the communities most in need. Many residents of informal settlements either never hear of impending floods or underestimate the urgency because messages are delivered in inaccessible formats or through channels they rarely use.
“We need to speak to people in the language they understand, through community leaders and local media,” advised disaster communication consultant, Mr. Rasheed Oladapo. “Right now, the warnings are mostly urban, elite-focused, and not grassroots-targeted.
” Without better localisation of flood alerts, vulnerable families will continue to be caught off guard by disasters that could have been anticipated.
Lagos Government Defends Its Efforts
The Lagos State Government attributed the recent flooding in Ikorodu to a contractor’s decision to dam a downstream waterway, which obstructed stormwater flow during a 14-hour torrential rainfall.
Commissioner for the Environment and Water Resources, Tokunbo Wahab on Wednesday, explained through the ministry’s spokesperson that “the contractor had been on site and dammed the downstream to allow the construction to go on.
He didn’t know it was going to be such a magnitude of heavy rains… when it started raining, the government appealed to him to free the downstream sector so that the storm water would recede and people could have their normal lives back.” Wahab noted that the state had anticipated heavy rains following early forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and had carried out advocacy campaigns, cleared over 666,000 drains and manholes, dredged 38 primary channels, and advised residents in low-lying areas like Agboyi, Agiliti, Itowolo, and Ajegunle to relocate temporarily. Stressing that climate change is intensifying flooding globally, he assured that Lagos is strengthening its drainage infrastructure while warning that “we are going to experience flash flooding,” despite ongoing proactive measures.
The Call for Immediate and Sustained Action
The reality is simple: floods in Lagos are predictable, but the city’s level of preparedness is not. “The problem is not that we don’t know floods will come; the problem is that we do too little, too late,” Mrs. Grace Olusola a civil servant and Ikorodu resident told AHR.
She continues, ‘Without immediate and sustained interventions, this year’s rainy season could leave thousands counting their losses and deepen the sense of resignation that has taken hold in flood-prone communities.
“Experts say the challenge now is for government, civil society, and residents to move beyond rhetoric, turning annual forecasts into actionable strategies that protect lives, livelihoods, and the economy before the next storm arrives.
