The World Bank has sounded the alarm over Nigeria’s worsening poverty outlook, warning that structural weaknesses in governance and public finance could derail efforts to improve living standards.
In its latest Africa’s Pulse report, released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, D.C., the institution projected a troubling rise in poverty in Nigeria—estimating an increase of 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027.
The report attributes the grim forecast not just to economic volatility but also to the country’s overdependence on natural resources and its fragile institutional framework. “This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates,” the Bank stated. In 2024, poverty in such countries averaged 46%, significantly higher than the 33% seen in non-fragile, resource-rich countries.
Despite some improvement in Nigeria’s non-oil economic activity in late 2024, the World Bank warns that these gains are insufficient to counterbalance deep-rooted fiscal and structural problems. “Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report emphasized.
Sub-Saharan Africa remains the epicenter of global extreme poverty. In 2024, the region accounted for 80% of the world’s 695 million extremely poor people, with Nigeria among the four countries hosting half of the region’s 560 million.
The report contrasts Nigeria’s trajectory with that of non-resource-rich countries in the region, which have capitalized on high agricultural commodity prices to accelerate growth and reduce poverty. “Non-resource-rich countries are projected to achieve faster poverty reduction despite fiscal challenges,” the Bank noted.
In a call to action, the World Bank urged Nigeria and similarly affected nations to overhaul their public finance systems. “Strengthening fiscal management and building a more effective fiscal contract with citizens is essential to reversing the poverty trend,” the report concluded.
