Kenya’s climate catastrophe as Nairobi hosts Africa summit

A view of the peaks of Mt Kenya as seen from the Timau area in Meru County. PHOTO | JOSEPH KANYI | NMG

Mount Kenya stands tall, the snow on her head occasionally peeking and popping into the clouds, and looking into the sun with the boldness only found on a mountain of her calibre.

Her beauty extends into three counties in central Kenya, proudly showing off her size.

But, this mountain, as mighty as she stands, is shrivelling under climate change, her crown melting off slowly, year after year. In another 20 years, the snow will be gone – climate change will have de-crowned her.

Just like that, Mount Kenya will go down in history as one of the first mountains in the world to be completely deglaciated due to climate change.

This is just one of the many consequences that Kenya continues to suffer as a result of global warming.

Tea, a main cash crop and foreign exchange earner for the country is also facing an uncertain future, particularly in Kericho County, as temperatures rise.

Kenya’s first State of Climate report released in 2020 revealed that the night temperature in most agricultural areas had risen, not only affecting the comfort of the people but also the growth of plants.

The report indicated that the nights in Kericho have seen a 24.4 percent temperature change since the 1960s and an 11.7 percent change in daytime temperatures in the same period.

“These are regions where we would never have had malaria or mosquitoes because they were considered too cold for mosquitoes to breed. But now we have reports of mosquitoes in highland regions such as Kericho so the impact of these rising temperatures are already being seen,” Patricia Nyingu’ro, a climate scientist at Kenya Meteorological Department, said during the launch of the report.

The report also indicates that suitability for maize farming is changing, some areas of Eldoret and Kitale are getting too wet for maize production.

Researchers at the Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, who are developing a climate atlas for Kenya, echoed this analysis.

“The maize is shifting towards the northern side of the country, which has traditionally been considered not suitable for maize production as opposed to the highlands areas like Kitale,” said Prof John Wesonga, a member of the team developing the atlas.

The State of Climate Report adds to a series of similar publications, which paint a bleak future for farming under climate change.

In 2020, tea researchers at the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation (Kalro) published a paper that confirmed the Meteorological Department’s findings that it’s not looking good for tea.

The paper published in Frontiers in Science Journal compiled 58 years of data and revealed that annual temperatures in Kenya over the 58 years under study had risen by 0.016°C.

Rainfall dropped by 4.8mm per year, for each of the 58 years.

“Climate data from Kenya Meteorological Department shows temperature in the region will increase by about two percent by 2025 and 11 percent by 2075. This means that the distribution of areas suitable for tea cultivation within the current growing areas in Kenya will decrease,” said the Kalro study.

For tea to grow optimally, it needs between 1,800 and 2,500mm of rain annually. But as temperatures continue to rise and droughts become frequent, tea is suffering under heat stress.

As a result, between six and 19 percent of the individual tea plants die, leaving the farmer with up to 20% losses in yields. This is according to the Kalro researchers.

“Adaptation in the tea sector is key,” the study says. “To boost the performance of tea, one key strategy would be to understand the mechanisms involved in stress tolerance and then breed varieties for that trait.”

“Africa’s climate has warmed more than the global average since pre-industrial times (1850–1900). In parallel, the sea-level rise along African coastlines has also been faster than the global mean, contributing to increases in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding, erosion, and salinity in low-lying cities,” World Meteorological Organisation secretary-general Petteri Taalas wrote in the State of Climate in Africa report of 2021.

The report, which was released ahead of COP27, revealed that regardless of the steps the world will take to limit global warming, glaciers in a third of the 50 world heritage sites are already condemned to disappear by 2050.

Read: Why the next climate summit is stirring controversy

This includes Mount Kenya and Mount Kilimanjaro. The remaining two-thirds of the glaciers can be saved from snow loss, the report says, if temperatures do not rise above 1.5°C, in line with the Paris Agreement.

More than half of the world’s population depends on glaciers for their daily water needs, and the fast melting snow puts the world at risk of flooding, as 58 billion tonnes of ice melts every year, resulting in sea level rise.

The impact of the sea level rise is already visible along Kenya’s coast. In Tana River County, Kipini is a village on the brink of extinction, as the Indian Ocean eats away at the village, piece by piece.

A couple of hotels that were beachfront now no longer exist. The locals say they no longer have fresh drinking water because their wells have now become saline. Graves are now shallow because they find salt water when they dig six feet.

National heritage sites along the coast are also facing the imminent threat of disappearing due to climate-induced sea level rise, and the National Museums of Kenya has taken notice.

“This is a very good example of how climate change is affecting the world. When you imagine 500 years ago the area around Fort Jesus would have been on a much higher level land, but now it’s at the base of the ocean.

A man tries to get clean water as the food and water shortages increase and a number of wild animals perish in Kajiado, Kenya on November 13, 2022. PHOTO | AFP

This problem is not only affecting Fort Jesus. It’s affecting the Vasco da Gama pillar in Malindi, it’s affecting the Jumba La Mtwana site, it’s affecting Lamu, and it’s affecting all coastal sites. And if something is not done, we may wish this heritage away in a few years to come,” the museum said.

To adapt to the changing climate and mitigate further risks to the coastal sites, the National Museums of Kenya began constructing a wall, but this did not go down well with Mombasa County.

“While we concur there is a need to do a seawall to protect Fort Jesus, even though I doubt it because Fort Jesus is over 400 years old, I don’t understand why the need has come now.

Even so, there are better ways of handling this. So we object to the construction of the seawall, given this is an area that historically is very important to all of us, it is a public area. So this seawall will change the entire ecological ecosystem of this area,” the then-governor Hassan Joho told the team from the museum that had started building the seawall.

In a rejoinder, the museum said the seawall was necessary because if not built, then the fort would fall into the ocean.

At the moment, Fort Jesus has lost 20 metres of its land to the ocean, causing cracks to appear within its walls due to 500 years of erosion.

So far, the sea walls have held and offered some relief to the sites, which are key to the country’s tourism. The museums of Kenya, however, say the lack of a comprehensive national database on cultural heritage and insufficient expertise are some of the challenges faced in adaptation efforts.

The museum now recommends that the government builds capacity by including cultural heritage into the curriculum so that children too can learn why it is important to save these sites from the impacts of climate change.

Around the world, climate extremes are putting food security and human health at risk as billions of dollars worth of property and assets are swept away in floods, livestock lost in drought and lives lost in heat waves.

Already, July 2023 has gone down in history as the hottest month ever seen, with 21 consecutive days of temperatures higher than any in recorded history.

July also had the hottest night recorded in Death Valley, US, when temperatures hit 48.9°C just after midnight. In the same month, Algeria recorded the highest temperature extreme in Africa, when it hit an average of 39.6°C on most nights.

Extreme heatwaves were also reported across Europe, Canada, China, Mexico, parts of Africa and Japan.

“Humans are responsible for virtually all global heating over the last 200 years. The rate of temperature rise in the last half-century is the highest in 2,000 years,” said UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres.

While Kenya has been lucky not to have suffered such extremes, it should be noted that some parts of the country are already living above the 1.5°C temperature limit.

Over the last 50 years, scientists have recorded a general decline of rainfall in all the 21 counties that are classified as arid and semi-arid (ASALs), while temperatures rose.

In fact, between 1960 and 2014, the ASALs had warmed by between 0.5°C and 1.9°C. Isiolo, for example, recorded temperature changes of 1.01°C, which has not only made the county hotter but also led to a decline in the cattle population by at least 10.4 percent between 1977 and 2015.

By 2030, Isiolo is projected to be 1.2°C hotter. This will make livestock production nearly impossible.

West Pokot and Elgeyo-Marakwet counties both recorded temperature rises of 1.91°C while Turkana and Baringo recorded a 1.8°C temperature increase.

The data by the Kenya Markets Trust also showed that Laikipia had warmed by 1.5°C while Narok’s temperature increased by 1.75°C.

Human-driven climate change is interacting with various other factors to amplify risks and drive vulnerabilities in Africa and Kenya.

From more intense and frequent droughts to heavy rainfall storms, ecosystems and communities are in a fight for their very existence.

When the lakes along the Rift Valley started rising, thousands of people were displaced and property lost. Today, although the lakes have receded, many of the displaced families may never return to their homes.

The losses and damage as a result of the rising lakes were estimated at Sh17 billion.

Kenya is just coming out of the grip of the worst drought in 40 years, which put nearly five million people at risk of starvation.

More than two million heads of livestock were lost, valued at more than Sh2 billion. The government of Kenya estimates that at least three percent of the gross domestic product is lost due to climate change.

A mkokoteni rider manoeuvres through a flooded road along CDF Road in Umoja, Nairobi on April 22, 2023, after a heavy downpour. PHOTO | BONFACE BOGITA | NMG

“Climate change is not an issue of tomorrow but today. It is at our doorstep, at our workplace and everywhere we go. The manifestations are vivid – shifting seasons, erratic rainfall and the appearance of vector-borne diseases in places where they never existed. We need to adjust to new realities of the context we find ourselves,” said Dr Mithika Mwenda, the executive director of the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance.

Today, Kenya begins hosting the Africa Climate Summit, which has brought together more than 10,000 delegates from around the world.

Kenya says the top on the agenda is to provide solutions for the changing climate, particularly those that fit Africa’s special needs and circumstances that make the continent vulnerable to climate change.

“Is it the case that those who have caused the least emission are being punished for doing the least and those who have polluted the world, the biggest polluters, are being awarded? We want a system that is accountable that holds emitters, those who pollute the world, to account. If it is not accountable, then it is corrupt,” President William Ruto said, during the UN Habitat Assembly held in Nairobi in June.

Read: Kenya sets sights on carbon trading rules in law review

“The Africa Climate Summit will be unique and special as it will be the inaugural summit where all African Heads of State and Governments are convened under the umbrella of the African Union dedicated to climate discussions. The summit will chart a green growth pathway for the African continent, setting the stage for Africa to lead the globe towards a more ecologically responsible global industrialisation, catalysed by financing that is accessible, adequate, and affordable,” said Soipan Tuya, Environment Cabinet secretary.

How to address climate change and bring justice to the communities most affected remains a subject that is hotly debated at the annual UN climate talks, but there might be some light at the end of the tunnel following the setting up of a loss and damage kitty during COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, last year.

“To enhance the resilience of our people in the face of frequent failed rains and crop seasons, Kenyan farmers need to embrace growing hardier, more drought-resistant and disease-tolerant food crops. There is also a lot to gain from practising agroecology and regenerative agriculture that promote biodiversity and soil health. At the same time, overgrazing that causes land degradation will have to be avoided.

By devising innovative ways to conserve water, Kenyan communities will have eased the pressure of droughts and built their resilience,” said Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa.

In light of the changing climate, Kenya has adopted various adaptation and mitigation strategies such as tree planting and climate-smart agriculture. Communities too have adopted ways to survive the heat waves such as going outside only during the cooler hours of the day or moving to cooler areas.

“And as we are affected differently based on our levels of development, those with capacity should help those who are at the frontline of the crisis. As an imperative of climate justice, those who caused this problem during their process of development should support the victims of their actions,” said Dr Mwenda.

Last year, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the 6th Assessment Report (AR6), the first major climate report since 2018, spelling out the devastation of climate change around the world and how human activities such as fossil fuel use and poor land use practices have pushed the world to a 1.10C warming.

The role of fossil fuels in global warming is one that is often hotly contested, as the developing world refuses to phase them out. Now the UN says a net-zero future should not be debatable if this climate crisis is to be survived.

“Leaders in emerging economies must commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2050 – and again, that limit they should all aim to respect. A number have already made the 2050 commitment,” the UN Secretary-General said during the launch of the AR6.

Currently, Kenya is reviewing its climate law, to include carbon markets, as it seeks to raise funds that will enable it to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

According to the plan presented to the UN, the country needs more than 60 billion dollars to climate-proof itself, but can only finance 13 percent of it.

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